A number of high profile recent studies have predicted high levels of automation in the UK in the coming years as artificial intelligence and related technologies disrupt the economy.
The Industrial Revolution drove automation of repetitive physical work; the Intelligence Revolution is having the same effect on a widening range of intellectual tasks, meaning that more and more jobs can potentially be performed by robots and computers.
A report published last month by think tank ‘Future Advocacy’ has warned that one-in-three jobs in Wales will be at risk as a result of automation by 2030, and that Wales’ top 10 private employers were in the most vulnerable sectors.
The report found that the manufacturing sector is the industry most susceptible to automation in Wales, with the retail and distribution sectors most affected across the UK as a whole.
Of the 40 Welsh constituencies, automation is expected to have the greatest impact on Alyn and Deeside, where 37% of jobs could disappear. Even in those least affected, one in four jobs are expected to go.
The data predicts that has many as 6,588 jobs could be at risk in Clwyd West, this is 26% of current jobs in the area. The sectors most at risk of automation in Clwyd West are retail and health. In comparison to the 40 directly elected Assembly constituencies, Clwyd West is ranked 30th in terms of highest number of jobs at risk of automation (which is different to the proportion of current jobs at risk of automation).
Yet despite these figures, only 7% of people in the UK are worried about their own jobs being displaced, while just 28% are concerned about jobs in their local area
There is no doubt that the figures are significant and that automation poses a potential threat to some jobs in Wales, but we must try not to be alarmist.
This ‘fourth industrial revolution’ presents opportunities too, and the Welsh Government needs to be working with business leaders to unlock them.
With proper preparation automation doesn’t need to spell disaster for Welsh jobs. We should start by looking at the reform of the education system in the case of young people, and retraining programmes in the case of existing workers, this will enable both groups to be resilient in the face of change and to find work that is resistant to automation in the years to come.
It is imperative for our nation's economic future that we begin thinking today about what kind of Wales we want to emerge from the fourth industrial revolution.
The positives that the technological changes of a new industrial revolution will bring could far outweigh the negatives. From improvements in healthcare to manufacturing, the opportunities are vast and wide ranging and it is up to all of us to grasp them.